(Readers be warned, this text accommodates some “tongue in cheek” traces)
Final Tuesday, Oct. the 11th, Fastned revealed its 3rd quarter results. The slides are here, and the webcast is available for replay here. As preparation, I visited some investor recommendation websites.
That was in all probability a silly factor to do. They didn’t actually know what sort of firm Fastned was. Primarily based on some modest progress projections from analysts (too conservative in my eyes), the conclusion was that to comprehend these projections, a CAGR of between 90% and 100% was wanted, one thing utterly unattainable as each investor is aware of.
When wanting on the outcomes over the primary 3 quarters in euros, the expansion was straightforward to dismiss whereas pointing at inflation and exploding power costs. Oh, and we did additionally nonetheless have some headwinds from Covid-19 final 12 months. The expansion from €7,571,000 to €22,688,000 was only a fluke. Who growths at 200%? No right-minded analysts expects the 2021 income of €12,471K to triple to over €37,500K. By no means thoughts that that’s what the spreadsheet of this non-analyst is predicting.
Okay, the primary quarter of 2021 was nonetheless a bit depressed, however the second and third had been again to regular. Trying on the gross sales quantity as an alternative of income, we see a totally totally different image. In kWh delivered, the expansion YoY for the second quarter was 175% and the third solely 149%. With out inflation, power value crises, or Covid-19 distortions, we’re nonetheless means above the unattainable CAGR of near 100%. That image of quantity progress shouldn’t be so totally different from the income progress image.
The one clarification have to be that Fastned grows means too quick. Each wise inventory analyst will come to this conclusion. Solely, that is additionally the expansion velocity from earlier than Covid-19. And it’s within the marketing strategy — not a mistake or a fluke.
The query is whether or not that is sustainable. And Fastned has a really convincing reply to that query. No, it’s not, there’s a ceiling to Fastned’s progress. Fastned will attain that ceiling in a decade or two, or maybe three many years. Yep, that ceiling is a good distance off. So long as the variety of electrical vehicles from the present 2% that passes Fastned’s stations retains rising, the gross sales can continue to grow. So long as Fastned can open new stations, can place extra chargers at present stations, gross sales continue to grow. So long as there are extra nations to increase the community to, the ceiling shouldn’t be in sight.
The identical is true for all competing charging firms. Ionity, Shell Recharge, Tesla Supercharging, GreenWay, and all these different charging firms have the identical alternative. As a result of all electrical energy tastes the identical, the one technique to compete is on service, buyer satisfaction, uptime, location, and all these different hard-to-quantify KPIs. As an EV driver, I like extra and higher charging stations throughout Europe, or the world even. As a Fastned shareholder, I’ve a stake on this.
That is what I discovered listening to the Fastned Q3 earnings name: Fastned retains rising, and retains rising quicker. After 26 new stations within the first 3 quarters, one other 40+ stations are able to be opened in This autumn.
Opening a brand new station prices 9 months to over 2 years. Solely the final 3–4 weeks do the shovels get into motion. The remainder of the time is required to make it shovel prepared, lower purple tape, sit on the ready record for a community connection. This explains why solely about half the prices of a brand new station seem as CAPEX on the stability sheet. The remainder are growth prices which are straight placed on the revenue and loss account.
To finance this quick progress, Fastned simply received one other €75 million from an investor. Schroders Capital was prepared to pay €36.90 for simply over 2 million shares. This allows Fastned to construct one other 100 or extra stations alongside European highways.
No information on the brand new nation organizations in Poland, Denmark, Italy, Eire, Spain, or Portugal. Fastned is in search of individuals who can add these nations to their community. I’m retired and was by no means a lot of a supervisor. Moreover, I’m Dutch. In case you are not like me in any means, in case you like a problem and are in for a profession transfer, please assist them make me wealthy. 😉
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